· economy · 2 min read
Follow up to Situational Awareness?
A pragmatic post-LLM investment thesis complements SA’s 2024 forecast of AGI by 2027 and superintelligence risks.
In 2024, a 22-year-old genius named Leopold Aschenbrenner published his thesis about the next 10 years in AI. So far, he has gotten almost everything right. His hedge fund, Situational Awareness LP, is up over 1,000%. He is now a billionaire (with a net worth of roughly $4 billion) and has made more billions for others (see the latest public 13F filing).
Yet since 2025, Leopold has gone completely silent. He hasn’t posted on X or on his blog. One rare piece of information that got out is that he got engaged to Avital Balwit, Chief of Staff at Anthropic. Silicon Valley is a small world.
I’m sure many people — myself included — would love to read an updated version of Leopold’s thesis. The one certain thing today is that we are at a pivotal moment in history. In 2034, nobody will look back at the past decade and say: “Except for my iPhone 24, not much has changed since 2024.”
In my quest to predict the future, I stumbled across a new thesis from a new fund that reads quite similarly to Situational Awareness. Meet the Sigil Supernova Memo. In contrast to Situational Awareness’s urgent 2024 manifesto — which forecasted aggressive AGI timelines by 2027, an intelligence explosion to superintelligence, and associated national-security/alignment risks — Sigil presents a more pragmatic, post-LLM investment view. It focuses on current physical-world bottlenecks and diversified opportunities across datacenters, robotics, space, biotech, and defense, where capital owners and incumbents win.
Sigil is not new to the fund game - they have two successful crypto funds under their belt.
I wholly recommend reading both theses. And, if you want event more, check out Sigil’s CIO Fiskantes on X and read an interview with him on CzechCrunch.
